2024 Semiconductor Industry Predictions
It is February 11th, 2024. Over the last year, we have put together a series of detailed predictions which successfully forecasted developments such as the Rabbit r1, the first consumer language model computer, and other trends. In this document, we are going to outline a series of time-bound predictions for how AI and Semiconductors will combine and produce a number of surprises.
2024 Semiconductor Industry Predictions
#1: Liquid Computing (Death of Semiconductor IP Worldwide)
Some have speculated that Generative AI may lead to the death of IP. Decentralized Thoughts is the first, only ever in history publication to predict that this trend will spread from art, film, software and music directly into hardware. Thats right. Not only will the instruction set be open (RISC-V), all the ASICS, drivers, hardware components, algorithms and chiplets will be open as well.
The result will be that semiconductors, the last bastion of IP law defense, will crumble in the face of an overwhelming onslaught of computer generated components. This “Liquefaction” of IP and semiconductors means that it will be possible, normal and common to generate end-to-end machines, including the operating system and kernel in a single pass.
PREDICTION: By the End of 2024, we will see end-to-end systems generated on the fly which include every component, the operating system, UI, ASICS and increasingly aspects of the supply chain for assembly itself.
This is a specific, named and time-bound prediction being made directly here. You are not seeing such predictions anywhere else on the internet from any other analyst to my knowledge at this time.
#2: A Futures Market For GPUs and GPU Compute
I have documented my “Machine Economy” thesis multiple times:
Prediction: We will see a futures market emerge, algorithmically and AI traded for tokenized forward compute contracts and GPUs this year
#3: Sam Altman Will Build The Matrix
In order to re-imagine the global semiconductor market supply chains, Sam Altman will need to completely “throw away” the rule book and start over from scratch. This involves two core elements:
- Sam Altman must build the greatest ever end-to-end semiconductor supply chain simulator (The Matrix) in history in order to outperform TSMC and others. This simulator will include every worker in every factory, the ships used to send supplies, the robots and the design of robots used to create the components
- Sam Altman must liquify computers end-to-end so they can be designed on the fly by AI, this will involve going as far as throwing away the last 100 years of human-designed computers and providing AI with nothing more than math and physics
PREDICTION: In the next 3–6 months, Sam Altman will announce the creation of The Matrix, it may be called something new
Closing Thoughts
By the end of the year, 2024, computing as we know it will be over. Computers will no longer contain any human-generated elements and will be 100% generated by machines. The internal functioning of computers will be a complete mystery, and will be created purely by AI as part of an integrated end-to-end supply chain (The Matrix). I expect to see, by the end of 2024, the first machines of this type begin to emerge.
