December 2024: Some Predictions

I wanted to take a moment to document some of my thinking around all of the trends that seem to be occurring. A lot of the below seems obvious to me and crystal clear that by the end of 2024, we will see it coming to life.

Conferences will be on track to 100% AI organized

Conferences, communities and events are among the fields which will face almost total automation. I expect to see regularly that events, meetups and communities are 100% organized and facilitated by AI.

Significant and growing % of law done by robots

The majority of small business and similar contracts will be written by AI by the end of 2024.

We will generate working mechanical systems

I believe it will be possible and common to automatically generate working mechanical diagrams which can be 3D printed or manufactured for:

• Working engines
• Complex mechanical systems
• Robotics joints and actuators
• Fully working vehicles

Furthermore, it will be possible to automatically source components and parts, produce instructions for assembling these machines and bills of materials to construct them using off-the-shelf components.

We will generate 2 hour movies on demand

I believe we are currently seeing the “death” of the final stages of the prior era of content. Disney Plus and others have salted the earth, building “content machines” which produce nearly unlimited supply of various flavors of super hero movie.

This is the end of the line of this era. The future will be generative. Consumers may subscribe to services and be able to submit and recieve real-time generated movies (or movies generated with a few weeks delay).

Movies will be constructed rapidly and refined via A/B/C testing and turned out in huge volumes. It will be possible for viewers to configure movies for variables like diversity, swap actors and change violence settings on demand.

Movies will be playable, like games

The line between a movie and a game will blur. You will be able to step into a play a movie or simply watch it.

Breakthrough Advancements In Personal Robotics

Humanoid robots will effectively have arrived, there will be an iPhone moment for humanoids in the next year. Low-cost, capable, useful.

Pre-orders for humanoids will be underway. It will not even be questionable that every house will own a humanoid in 3–5 years.

AI in an Earpiece, Profusion of wearable devices

People will still look at screens, but we will see massive progress towards a combination setup which is an earpiece connected to a small satellite phone in your pocket.

The desire or need to look at screens will decrease as chatter via an earpiece becomes more and more popular. It is unknown at this time if talking to AI will be vastly superior to looking at a screen.

By this time next year, expect at least an AI phone with no screen, or a profusion of tricorders and pin badges to exist. Satellite phones will begin to emerge and take off.

Amazon Alexa will become supercharged

Automation of day to day grocery shopping and similar will massively be increased via Amazon Alexa. The intelligence of home assistants will skyrocket, you will have a personal friend in the house with many potential personalities.

Amazon may also introduce one or more home personal robots in various flavors and forms. An ecosystem of such robots based on Alexa may emerge rapidly.

Profusion of advanced robotic toys

We will begin to see AI-infused robotic toys in a wide range which are dramatically superior to anything we have ever seen before.

Significant advancements in Network States

Innovations in governance, voting and administration from the cryptocurrency space will be supercharged with AI. AI will be enabled to accelerate community, meetings, governance. It won’t be actively used to govern the real world, but the shape of true network states will be well underway.

It will be possible that X may evolve into a Network State platform for humans and begin to erode the power of global governments. It is possible that X can introduce apps, inbuilt AI and banking plus a satellite phone.

Elon Musk may introduce a satellite phone for X, which will enable the X-phone to become a platform for citizenship. This will not be finished, but significant advancements in this direction will have occurred.

The X Platform

It will soon become clear that the X platform is the most powerful inter-human communication tool and may become the de-facto forum for global governance.

30–50%+ of all content will be generated

The amount of content appearing across all channels that is generated will skyrocket. It might be the case that we see machine generated content exceed human generated content by December 2024.

Machine-to-Machine Payments

We will begin to see a second generation of RWA in the form of more advanced machine-to-machine payments which can be used by machines to purchase connectivity, compute power, energy and other scarce resources.

Radical shift in composition of companies

I believe that highly creative people will experience massive demand. Employers will no longer want to staff “administrative management” who are not value-add beyond filling in spreadsheets and performing mechanical tasks. Creative visionaries and “idea guys” will get paid way more than anyone else. Companies will be much smaller.

Rockstar Era

After years of becoming more and more turn-key, boring and predictable, I believe the tech industry will begin to produce and rely on extremely unusual rock-star creators who combine technology and creative vision and are able to massively out innovate and mass out produce everyone.

Venture Capital, which has been historically geared to a Y-Combinator type model of farming teams of entrepreneurs, will become more like the NBA or professional sports.

You are going to want to be “Drafting” superstar talent. Standard college educated talent who do not have a creative and artistic component will fall sharply out of demand.

Storyboarding & Inception

Entire projects can be storyboarded from start to finish, including business plans, research automation, data gathering, competitive positioning. It will be possible to generate entire businesses rapidly by scanning markets and locating pricing gaps.

Mexico

Part of me wonders whether there will not be a war or significant escalation of violence with Mexico, perhaps after a shocking occurrence triggering United States intervention.

The festering problems with fentanyl will be addressed at some point as Mexico is rising to become the United States #1 trade partner.

America will take radical action to protect it’s interests (trade) with Mexico and make Mexico safer for United States corporations. More likely than not, a pretext will be found (violent gangs) for taking this action or actions.

Soft Landing & Economic Golden Period

Deflation will occur which is shocking caused by AI. AI tools like ChatGPT and Grok will cause prices to plummet across a wide range of services and goods. We will see an unexpectedly robust growth period.

Outgrowing the Debt

The United States will out grow it’s debt through a combination of Deflation, adoption of advanced AI and robotics and the complaints about the debt will seem shortsighted in five years.

Surprise Reform of Troubled Cities

I believe San Francisco will be cleaned up aggressively along with other troubled cities as tolerance for high crime will overcome far left protest.