Sam Altman Must Build The Matrix To Solve The AI Semiconductor Shortage

You may have seen that Sam Altman is planning to reinvent the world of AI Semiconductors to the tune of $7T. A big driver is the shortage of GPUs which threatens the growth of OpenAI. Accelerating factors are geopolitical tensions, the collapse of American semiconductor worker demographics and shortage of Taiwanese TSMC workers. Another big problem is the fact that net new fabs take years to build.

So how do you solve the problem? I have a simple answer:

Sam Altman and Microsoft need to build the world’s most accurate simulation of end-to-end supply chains for semiconductors: The Matrix.

You heard it here first.

Having worked in semiconductors myself, I have seen how heartbreakingly difficult it is for CEOs to plan fabs, make decisions projected forward a decade using current estimates of technological progress.

When building or trying to build fabrication facilities, even small errors in math, changes in tax codes or geopolitical tensions can destroy even the most reasonable plans, costing billions.

As a result, truly “solving” the global semiconductor shortage is actually a geopolitical prediction problem. Where to place fabs, how to train workers, the design of imaginary robot workers that don’t exist yet years ahead into the future, predictions around where conflicts may erupt due to known border disputes.

“Solving” semiconductors is above all an advanced simulation, modeling and prediction problem. A “Master Brain” must be created which can do things like:

• Estimate the progress of robotic workers, and how to build, design and source them
• Make near-term, medium-term, far-term and ultra-far term simulated decisions of where and how to place facilities, how to design the facilities based on what it estimates the future of robotic workers and technology to be
• Maintain and constantly update, tweak and adjust the Matrix, including many potential scenarios such as “war with Russia” or “war between Pakistan and India” and other such potential outcomes
• Dynamically adjust and track pricing (futures market) for assets

Want to solve semiconductor supply chains? You have to build The Matrix.