The events of last week gave me a bad feeling

I have a really bad feeling after the events and discussions from last week between the H1B conversations, and possibly more ominous, speech by president Xi on the topic of Taiwan and discussions around extending the United States to cover Canada, Panama Canal and Greenland.

While the election is over, it is clear that something feels “off.” It doesn’t feel like we are all on a happy glide path to smooth times. In fact, it seems that we are going to see conflicts of different types.

One of the things which is clear: Europe is cooked as a military power. There is simply nothing there protecting it. And the United States isn’t going to protect it.

It seems the same is also likely true of Canada, Greenland, all of South America. Australia. New Zealand. There isn’t really a whole lot left to prevent those countries from being invaded or taken over by whoever wants to do so.

The surprise introduction of Canada, Mexico, Greenland and Panama initially began as “negotiation” discussions. But the more I thought about it, the more I decided there is something else going on. The United States is going to overhaul it’s position on the world stage and it’s ownership and dominance of the hemisphere.

And no one can stop it. Why? All militaries are exhuasted from the Ukraine war. No one has the means, motivation or economic capability or military to prevent the United States from doing … well … whatever it wants.

Take over Canada? Who is going to stop us?

Take over the Panama Canal? Who is going to stop us?

Take over Greenland? Who is going to stop us? And why is Denmark, a tiny European country, running a multi-trillion dollar landmass outside the European sphere?

And if Europe doesn’t like it? Tough. Come at us. Feel free to send the European military which doesn’t exist, armed with the drones and munitions which don’t exist or are tied down completely in Ukraine.

The United States seems to be in a novel position to begin grabbing things that it wants, and no one can prevent it.

Furthermore, we are seeing the potential for a great global partition. In settling the Ukraine war, and wars in the Middle East. A “grand deal” involving Russia, the United States, Israel, Saudi Arabia and China (and not Europe, South America or Canada who can’t afford to fight).

Russia will get some sort of energy and land and resource deal in Ukraine. China may get Taiwan, perhaps other things too. Israel will get greater Israel. The United States will dramatically expand it’s local influence and dominance, including over Mexico.

The world will get redrawn around what we just learned in Ukraine.

And what did we learn? Europe can’t afford to fight and the weapons at our disposal are ineffective. The weakness of Europe and the UK will effectively ensure complete irrelevence and the three larger powers will be pushing them around. Canada too. Mexico too.

It is an unfortunate reality that the United States war machine does not have an “off” switch. It MUST be running all the time. Supplying things, building things, manufacturing things, inventing things, creating jobs, spending money, patroling things.

The point of withdrawing from Afghanistan in retrospect was the free the machinary for the new war in Ukraine and around Israel. Now the machinary will be freed up again. Likely the handshake deals have already occurred with the incoming administration.

The machinary of war and of state and influence must be kept busy, the economy depends on it. That machinary will be redirected to Mexico, Greenland, Canada perhaps.

That is the darker version of what we seem to be getting hinted at.

Watching the last two weeks left me feeling like there is something not nice in the works. A Ukraine deal will be a good thing to end conflict with Russia. But the DEAL which is going to be struck, a deal which will settle disputes in the middle east, shore up greater Israel, leave Europe to fend for itself and provide Russia with it’s energy economy…may include some provisions which no one in polite company wants to talk about.

At the very least, we may very well see a new global partition between powers. The United States can’t afford to be fighting Russia and China at the same time. So maybe it will make a deal. We get Canada, Greenland, Panama Canal. Russia and China may not like it, but they might be getting some things too.

The reality of the balance of powers we seem to have right now is that America’s “war winnings” from Ukraine may include substantial parts of our own hemisphere.

The world may become more “peaceful” for a time, but it won’t be the same world we had before.

Another driving factor is purely demographic. As global demographics decline, perhaps nations might merge to pool the dwindling supply of people they have. Rather than war, we might see mergers and aquisitions occur.